USDA forecast
Food at home
Store prices: now and in 12 months
| Item | Now | In 12 months | Change |
|---|
| Month | Average household, a month | USDA range |
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Inflation impact · next 12 months
Next 12 Months: Food Inflation Impact
Where food prices are headed over the next 12 months, by food group: what the average household spends today, in dollars, next to USDA's official forecast and its range of likely outcomes, store prices for everyday items, and what it could mean for your grocery bill.
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Groceries, forecast
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USDA Economic Research Service
What it means for what you spend
on groceries
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Compare food groups
Which foods will rise most?
How this compares with recent years
About the forecast
Where does the forecast come from?
From the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS), which updates its Food Price Outlook every month for the main food groups. It forecasts the change in the average price level for a whole year compared with the year before, using the government's own price indexes. VanillaGoods does not make its own forecast; we show USDA's numbers as published.
Why does it say a calendar year if this is about the next 12 months?
USDA forecasts whole calendar years. From July onward, most of the next 12 months fall in the coming year, so this page uses next year's forecast as the yearly rate and applies it month by month from the latest official month. It is an easy way to see the likely direction, not an exact monthly prediction.
Where do the dollar amounts come from?
The monthly amounts are what the average U.S. household spends on each food group, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Surveys (the latest year published), brought to each month's prices with the matching Consumer Price Index. Store prices are BLS average U.S. prices for single items, such as a dozen eggs or a pound of flour. Your own bill depends on your household and where you shop, so you can type your own amount in the budget box.
What is the shaded range?
USDA's 95% prediction interval: the range USDA expects the real change to land in, 19 times out of 20. It is wide for groups that swing a lot, like eggs or fresh vegetables, and narrows as the year goes on and more data come in.
What are farm and wholesale prices?
USDA also forecasts producer prices, the prices farms, packers, mills and dairies receive. They move earlier and much more than store prices, so they are an early signal for bakeries, restaurants and food businesses.
How often is this updated?
Every month, after USDA's release (usually around the 25th). The release date is shown at the top of the page.
- Forecasts: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook (consumer and producer price index forecasts, midpoint and 95% prediction interval).
- Recent prices: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted), Average Price Data (U.S. city average store prices) and Producer Price Indexes.
- Household spending: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Surveys (average yearly spending of all U.S. consumer units). VanillaGoods is not affiliated with USDA or BLS, and they do not endorse this analysis.